{"bundle_id":"50dccf60-9849-4cec-829a-1c8de6c16c9c","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-14T07:17:32.207631+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"abf3bbd9-06b7-4366-898f-4ce4fa5d984d","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.665,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-6.0,"delta_7d":-6.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":139.6961,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":24,"signal_score":7.3369,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"1207f5ce-6239-4adf-808f-9ee435b6d1f2","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-14T07:22:49.506061+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T07:16:35.045939+00:00","external_market_id":"3553884","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.665,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-6.0,"delta_7d":-6.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":139.6961,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":24,"signal_score":7.3369,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T08:10:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-13T09:10:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-13T10:10:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-13T11:10:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-13T14:10:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-13T15:10:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-13T16:10:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-13T17:10:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-13T18:10:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-13T19:10:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-13T20:10:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-13T21:10:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-13T23:10:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-14T00:10:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-14T01:10:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-14T02:10:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-14T04:10:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-14T07:10:00+00:00",0.665]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-14T07:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":24,"points_returned":24,"probability_range_percentage_points":7.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":23.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"1207f5ce-6239-4adf-808f-9ee435b6d1f2","title":"Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"125200e8cb62e527a63a6baee7f25af0047aa449feaf4f03a9be11b2a76dd209","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T07:16:35.045939+00:00","source_markets":["1207f5ce-6239-4adf-808f-9ee435b6d1f2"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}