{"bundle_id":"65c362a6-4404-47e6-b137-06f387a81ffa","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T00:20:12.585661+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"55d9403d-a3ed-4da4-b884-0da82cb92e1c","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.055,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-9.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":40.9886,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":424,"signal_score":2.3152,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"0baea902-6aeb-4fd7-a85c-689d81900e15","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T00:22:31.355295+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:16:22.960793+00:00","external_market_id":"2774057","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.055,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-9.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":40.9886,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":424,"signal_score":2.3152,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T01:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-14T21:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-15T04:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-15T11:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-15T14:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-15T18:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-16T09:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-16T12:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-17T00:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-17T13:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-17T21:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-18T04:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-18T08:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-18T16:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-19T01:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-19T04:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T09:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T13:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-19T16:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T17:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-20T00:05:00+00:00",0.055]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T01:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T00:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":40,"probability_range_percentage_points":11.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"0baea902-6aeb-4fd7-a85c-689d81900e15","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"17eae6e0c1f77dd4f1a28c64de545a201332f79ac0ea00b2120313ec264a4e74","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:16:22.960793+00:00","source_markets":["0baea902-6aeb-4fd7-a85c-689d81900e15"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}