{"bundle_id":"47951353-afcb-45d8-8912-8418fded1657","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T18:19:58.188308+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"c7206751-4cd3-4e4e-aa49-165d372c0481","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.5,"delta_7d":-3.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":136.2363,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.087,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":354,"signal_score":1.5435,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"6905ee72-31e0-4e37-ab91-ba74d1fcc859","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T18:20:22.451372+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T18:14:40.706541+00:00","external_market_id":"3215073","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.5,"delta_7d":-3.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":136.2363,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.087,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":354,"signal_score":1.5435,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-10T20:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-12T22:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-15T01:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-15T15:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-15T22:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-16T03:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-16T05:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T10:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.075]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T23:55:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":33,"probability_range_percentage_points":3.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"6905ee72-31e0-4e37-ab91-ba74d1fcc859","title":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"e0db56c62dff4f0120993f81e95404d6e6d588a271fdcf6f2c67d42c42a7e9ec","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T18:14:40.706541+00:00","source_markets":["6905ee72-31e0-4e37-ab91-ba74d1fcc859"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}