{"bundle_id":"8c7788e4-29a6-4652-9c77-ab2df8214ade","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T02:18:56.020062+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"538be0b7-9c7f-45a3-add2-7718b654cf1b","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.83,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.5,"delta_7d":-1.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.9058,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3043,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":229,"signal_score":3.9021,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"f4fb088c-c53a-4ec4-9459-3c33575e4c79","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T02:21:50.590688+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T02:15:38.659702+00:00","external_market_id":"2232193","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.83,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.5,"delta_7d":-1.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.9058,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3043,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":229,"signal_score":3.9021,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T03:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T04:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T06:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T11:05:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T00:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T08:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.805],["2026-08-18T04:05:00+00:00",0.805],["2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00",0.81],["2026-08-18T08:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-18T09:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-18T12:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-18T17:05:00+00:00",0.81],["2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00",0.84],["2026-08-18T20:05:00+00:00",0.805],["2026-08-18T21:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-18T23:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-19T01:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00",0.83]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T03:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":105.0,"observation_count":65,"points_returned":32,"probability_range_percentage_points":4.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"f4fb088c-c53a-4ec4-9459-3c33575e4c79","title":"Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"71c094569409829d3dd4449d42e663d4f47cc0d6ede6eeeef841d087f3e8df4c","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T02:15:38.659702+00:00","source_markets":["f4fb088c-c53a-4ec4-9459-3c33575e4c79"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}