{"bundle_id":"36566762-4cc5-4a10-8d22-f9349c323ce4","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T09:25:44.211970+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"6a38e3c0-2fdd-4bbe-89ad-5ea3ef19aa64","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.7575,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.55,"delta_7d":20.2,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":41.6114,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4348,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":424,"signal_score":1.7674,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T09:26:27.361453+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T09:18:34.853438+00:00","external_market_id":"2646914","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.7575,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.55,"delta_7d":20.2,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":41.6114,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4348,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":424,"signal_score":1.7674,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.5555],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.558],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-14T00:05:00+00:00",0.6195],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.627],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.614],["2026-08-14T08:05:00+00:00",0.632],["2026-08-14T12:05:00+00:00",0.6415],["2026-08-14T15:05:00+00:00",0.6425],["2026-08-14T22:05:00+00:00",0.69],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7075],["2026-08-15T00:05:00+00:00",0.692],["2026-08-15T06:05:00+00:00",0.703],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.6845],["2026-08-15T13:05:00+00:00",0.6815],["2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00",0.678],["2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00",0.674],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.6715],["2026-08-16T03:05:00+00:00",0.6715],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.6685],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.6675],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.669],["2026-08-16T18:05:00+00:00",0.6785],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.6905],["2026-08-17T01:05:00+00:00",0.6855],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.6945],["2026-08-17T08:05:00+00:00",0.6945],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.6825],["2026-08-17T16:05:00+00:00",0.6865],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.693],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.6895],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.708],["2026-08-18T10:05:00+00:00",0.7065],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.732],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.7265],["2026-08-19T03:05:00+00:00",0.7505],["2026-08-19T04:05:00+00:00",0.7505],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.7405],["2026-08-19T11:05:00+00:00",0.7425],["2026-08-19T17:05:00+00:00",0.7565],["2026-08-19T18:05:00+00:00",0.7575],["2026-08-19T22:05:00+00:00",0.753],["2026-08-20T03:05:00+00:00",0.7555],["2026-08-20T04:05:00+00:00",0.7565],["2026-08-20T09:05:00+00:00",0.7575]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T09:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":20.2,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","title":"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"158d00e891c471b3eb76ab6991ce4f215a9e8aa45e79cc1ae6c80faf5e87bdb5","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T09:18:34.853438+00:00","source_markets":["046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}