{"bundle_id":"01d54805-8b8a-465d-beab-4960a2b53fea","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T17:16:29.569977+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"e2d70aa6-7c89-4e39-8155-a302d03e37e1","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.048,"data_completeness":0.1076,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.25,"delta_7d":1.05,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":49.2812,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1667,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":200,"signal_score":2.5834,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"a00bc086-ae0f-493c-82c1-5604f1eadc7d","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T17:19:51.224249+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T17:15:01.556830+00:00","external_market_id":"2126460","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.048,"data_completeness":0.1076,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.25,"delta_7d":1.05,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":49.2812,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1667,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":200,"signal_score":2.5834,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-04T18:00:00+00:00",0.0375],["2026-08-04T19:00:00+00:00",0.0375],["2026-08-04T23:00:00+00:00",0.0325],["2026-08-05T02:00:00+00:00",0.0365],["2026-08-05T07:00:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-05T10:00:00+00:00",0.0325],["2026-08-05T16:00:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-05T18:00:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-05T21:00:00+00:00",0.0275],["2026-08-06T02:00:00+00:00",0.0275],["2026-08-06T06:00:00+00:00",0.0295],["2026-08-06T11:00:00+00:00",0.0355],["2026-08-06T17:00:00+00:00",0.0465],["2026-08-06T20:00:00+00:00",0.047],["2026-08-06T22:00:00+00:00",0.0385],["2026-08-07T02:00:00+00:00",0.0385],["2026-08-07T03:00:00+00:00",0.0375],["2026-08-07T10:00:00+00:00",0.0385],["2026-08-07T11:00:00+00:00",0.0355],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.0325],["2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.032],["2026-08-09T01:00:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-09T17:00:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-10T11:00:00+00:00",0.0285],["2026-08-10T13:00:00+00:00",0.028],["2026-08-10T14:00:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-10T17:00:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-10T18:00:00+00:00",0.0355],["2026-08-10T21:05:00+00:00",0.0335],["2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",0.046],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.0435],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.042],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.042],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.05],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.048]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-04T18:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":184,"points_returned":43,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.25,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"a00bc086-ae0f-493c-82c1-5604f1eadc7d","title":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"76dfeebfe83a48be0759127849c43d1b3be7e3c79bd68650c31a1de9d9b18659","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T17:15:01.556830+00:00","source_markets":["a00bc086-ae0f-493c-82c1-5604f1eadc7d"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}