{"bundle_id":"be738cdf-a168-49f6-8663-ca324721353e","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T20:20:10.906815+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"c69cfb7d-17d9-4799-8b90-e93996148211","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.235,"data_completeness":0.0972,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-15.0,"delta_7d":-20.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":317.1549,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3704,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":191,"signal_score":16.4352,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"96a5fc75-56c2-4e23-8bf1-64e6df30a05a","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T20:20:41.252340+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T20:15:57.714139+00:00","external_market_id":"2914145","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.235,"data_completeness":0.0972,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-15.0,"delta_7d":-20.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":317.1549,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3704,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":191,"signal_score":16.4352,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T21:00:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-11T01:00:00+00:00",0.49],["2026-08-11T05:00:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-11T07:00:00+00:00",0.47],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.47],["2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-11T21:00:00+00:00",0.49],["2026-08-12T02:00:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-12T03:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-12T04:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-12T11:00:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-12T18:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-12T19:00:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-13T02:00:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-13T06:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-13T09:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-13T14:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-13T17:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-14T08:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-14T15:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-14T22:00:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-14T23:00:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-15T06:00:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-15T13:00:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-15T18:00:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-16T02:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-16T04:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-16T05:00:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-16T17:00:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-16T18:00:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-17T00:00:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-17T03:00:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.775],["2026-08-17T10:05:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-17T15:05:00+00:00",0.49],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.24],["2026-08-17T20:05:00+00:00",0.235]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T21:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T20:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":174,"points_returned":44,"probability_range_percentage_points":54.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"96a5fc75-56c2-4e23-8bf1-64e6df30a05a","title":"Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"a4a3ce4679d8fe3b081ff647565d53cb0d5948ceafe03abd4587773596bfb396","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T20:15:57.714139+00:00","source_markets":["96a5fc75-56c2-4e23-8bf1-64e6df30a05a"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}