{"bundle_id":"348b6094-66ad-41f1-839c-f3eeadfe62c4","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T15:18:40.655647+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"0dee6a9b-f334-4e1b-b37f-f53b2d35accd","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.8425,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.7,"delta_7d":-11.45,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":140.3635,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":271,"signal_score":2.1892,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T15:20:08.816064+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T15:15:34.174914+00:00","external_market_id":"3128886","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.8425,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.7,"delta_7d":-11.45,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":140.3635,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":271,"signal_score":2.1892,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-06T16:00:00+00:00",0.957],["2026-08-06T17:00:00+00:00",0.957],["2026-08-06T23:00:00+00:00",0.941],["2026-08-07T02:00:00+00:00",0.938],["2026-08-07T04:00:00+00:00",0.9435],["2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00",0.941],["2026-08-07T11:00:00+00:00",0.966],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.944],["2026-08-07T22:00:00+00:00",0.946],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.9575],["2026-08-08T05:00:00+00:00",0.952],["2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",0.961],["2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00",0.9485],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.9365],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.931],["2026-08-09T02:00:00+00:00",0.9185],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.914],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.9225],["2026-08-09T09:05:00+00:00",0.9215],["2026-08-09T12:05:00+00:00",0.783],["2026-08-09T16:05:00+00:00",0.833],["2026-08-09T21:05:00+00:00",0.8615],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.8555],["2026-08-10T02:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.843],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.82],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.828],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.7955],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.783],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.791],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.7905],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.7795],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.776],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.8145],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.8],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.8035],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.7985],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.7985],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.8445],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.837],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.8415],["2026-08-13T00:05:00+00:00",0.842],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.8485],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.847],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.839],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.8425]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-06T16:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":170,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":19.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"78bbe98552976649d2955a56522afcad9a4e8081da9417e96dbcead380e6198b","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T15:15:34.174914+00:00","source_markets":["9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}