{"bundle_id":"6a7a8e64-0a0b-46f3-bbd6-c2deaafe091d","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T12:15:51.600879+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"004fef64-78be-4c2a-8056-5c265d4cfe8c","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.365,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-9.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":34.4896,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":244,"signal_score":3.3587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"632e999e-3fed-48d1-88af-88175dcf6382","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T12:19:21.650310+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T12:14:56.509644+00:00","external_market_id":"2252245","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.365,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-9.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":34.4896,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":244,"signal_score":3.3587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-05T13:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-05T14:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-05T20:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-05T21:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-06T04:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-06T11:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-06T19:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-07T02:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-07T03:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-07T13:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-08T07:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-08T14:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-09T11:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-09T12:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-09T18:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-10T01:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-10T06:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-11T05:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-12T02:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.365]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-05T13:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":39,"probability_range_percentage_points":16.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"632e999e-3fed-48d1-88af-88175dcf6382","title":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"5700be5d41d7c0a88f7c1bad323d35d474b97ad1f5c09e24ca98de1968351e54","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T12:14:56.509644+00:00","source_markets":["632e999e-3fed-48d1-88af-88175dcf6382"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}