{"bundle_id":"7bbff4d4-fce1-411f-af44-c276eb16759f","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-16T08:18:28.196296+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"5d98b828-447d-4f0c-abca-598e2d1f6180","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.36,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-3.5,"delta_7d":-19.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.4902,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.5,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":234,"signal_score":5.0,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"487fee35-c05d-4710-8136-23378551237f","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-16T08:20:01.418939+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T08:14:03.223610+00:00","external_market_id":"2747434","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.36,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-3.5,"delta_7d":-19.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.4902,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.5,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":234,"signal_score":5.0,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.55],["2026-08-09T09:05:00+00:00",0.55],["2026-08-09T10:00:00+00:00",0.54],["2026-08-09T11:00:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-09T12:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-09T13:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-09T14:00:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-09T15:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-09T16:00:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-09T17:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-09T18:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-09T20:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-09T20:05:00+00:00",0.47],["2026-08-09T22:00:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-09T22:05:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00",0.45],["2026-08-10T00:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-10T02:00:00+00:00",0.46],["2026-08-10T03:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-14T00:05:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-14T01:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-14T08:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-14T15:05:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-14T18:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-16T00:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-16T04:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.36]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T20:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":67.0,"observation_count":88,"points_returned":45,"probability_range_percentage_points":19.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"487fee35-c05d-4710-8136-23378551237f","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"661bf6601b4ffcf23e1a526d0d8585e25a2bf6ce69d80c7f3b6d4b6dbdba1c51","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T08:14:03.223610+00:00","source_markets":["487fee35-c05d-4710-8136-23378551237f"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}