{"bundle_id":"127d4d5e-2370-47f2-a145-436fca1827cc","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T00:18:39.951685+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"3dfe87e0-5376-4c7c-b9c4-aee49f0e91b3","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0295,"data_completeness":0.1424,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-8.05,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.9879,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":46,"signal_score":3.375,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"a66cb27a-a955-4d1c-b168-246a7c734c52","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T00:22:22.658743+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:16:22.960793+00:00","external_market_id":"3708624","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0295,"data_completeness":0.1424,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-8.05,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.9879,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":46,"signal_score":3.375,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-18T20:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-18T21:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-18T22:00:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-18T23:00:00+00:00",0.048],["2026-08-19T00:00:00+00:00",0.0405],["2026-08-19T01:00:00+00:00",0.0495],["2026-08-19T02:00:00+00:00",0.0485],["2026-08-19T03:00:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-19T04:00:00+00:00",0.0545],["2026-08-19T04:10:00+00:00",0.0545],["2026-08-19T05:00:00+00:00",0.0545],["2026-08-19T05:05:00+00:00",0.0545],["2026-08-19T06:00:00+00:00",0.0545],["2026-08-19T06:05:00+00:00",0.0545],["2026-08-19T07:00:00+00:00",0.05],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.05],["2026-08-19T08:00:00+00:00",0.05],["2026-08-19T08:10:00+00:00",0.05],["2026-08-19T09:00:00+00:00",0.041],["2026-08-19T09:10:00+00:00",0.041],["2026-08-19T10:00:00+00:00",0.041],["2026-08-19T10:05:00+00:00",0.041],["2026-08-19T11:00:00+00:00",0.0425],["2026-08-19T11:10:00+00:00",0.041],["2026-08-19T12:00:00+00:00",0.042],["2026-08-19T12:10:00+00:00",0.0415],["2026-08-19T13:00:00+00:00",0.0425],["2026-08-19T13:05:00+00:00",0.042],["2026-08-19T14:00:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-19T14:05:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-19T15:00:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-19T15:05:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-19T16:00:00+00:00",0.03],["2026-08-19T16:10:00+00:00",0.03],["2026-08-19T17:00:00+00:00",0.03],["2026-08-19T17:10:00+00:00",0.03],["2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00",0.03],["2026-08-19T18:10:00+00:00",0.03],["2026-08-19T19:00:00+00:00",0.03],["2026-08-19T19:10:00+00:00",0.03],["2026-08-19T20:00:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-19T20:10:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-19T21:05:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-19T22:05:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-19T23:05:00+00:00",0.0295],["2026-08-20T00:10:00+00:00",0.0295]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-18T20:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T00:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":46,"points_returned":46,"probability_range_percentage_points":8.05,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":28.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"a66cb27a-a955-4d1c-b168-246a7c734c52","title":"Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to \"Strait of Trump\" by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"601a0ca613617da0817924b1113bdf8f7e3bbac9beb6a3335a24533f2e402bbc","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:16:22.960793+00:00","source_markets":["a66cb27a-a955-4d1c-b168-246a7c734c52"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}