{"bundle_id":"433f6f86-3070-4a85-95a4-4d29c2ed70e0","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T02:19:12.709026+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"dbaabd1a-7e08-454d-9a2e-84da2d0eb56a","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0355,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.65,"delta_7d":-9.95,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":27.9062,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":168,"signal_score":0.8239,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"32ea1443-d919-4395-bb33-98e4a6bcb4d3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T02:21:39.630975+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T02:15:07.871478+00:00","external_market_id":"3501952","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0355,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.65,"delta_7d":-9.95,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":27.9062,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":168,"signal_score":0.8239,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T10:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-11T11:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-11T14:00:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-11T17:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-11T20:10:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T03:10:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-12T18:10:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-13T00:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-14T15:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-14T21:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-15T03:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-15T04:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-15T11:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-15T14:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-15T18:10:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-16T14:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-17T00:05:00+00:00",0.026],["2026-08-17T04:05:00+00:00",0.0275],["2026-08-17T10:05:00+00:00",0.032],["2026-08-17T13:05:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-17T15:05:00+00:00",0.038],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.037],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00",0.0355]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T10:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":8.0,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":40,"probability_range_percentage_points":12.4,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":160.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"32ea1443-d919-4395-bb33-98e4a6bcb4d3","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"3b4d4261e0705b15ec409e347e284568b76fb02b3b56cf16c7dd0bc5c8ba572e","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T02:15:07.871478+00:00","source_markets":["32ea1443-d919-4395-bb33-98e4a6bcb4d3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}