{"bundle_id":"debad3f9-e031-4b0c-a033-cf7a3e507ec6","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T06:18:19.762298+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"5853422f-3440-4dff-854f-8465d11a53de","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0795,"data_completeness":0.059,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.65,"delta_7d":2.75,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.7396,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":178,"signal_score":4.025,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"4618a661-1455-44cc-8ac4-15710f7dfb22","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T06:21:49.694547+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T06:14:55.730666+00:00","external_market_id":"665246","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0795,"data_completeness":0.059,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.65,"delta_7d":2.75,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.7396,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":178,"signal_score":4.025,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T07:00:00+00:00",0.052],["2026-08-12T08:00:00+00:00",0.0525],["2026-08-12T11:00:00+00:00",0.0515],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.0515],["2026-08-12T18:00:00+00:00",0.071],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.071],["2026-08-13T03:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-13T05:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-13T10:00:00+00:00",0.072],["2026-08-13T11:00:00+00:00",0.071],["2026-08-13T15:00:00+00:00",0.073],["2026-08-13T18:00:00+00:00",0.073],["2026-08-13T21:00:00+00:00",0.0725],["2026-08-14T01:00:00+00:00",0.073],["2026-08-14T03:00:00+00:00",0.072],["2026-08-14T08:00:00+00:00",0.072],["2026-08-14T12:00:00+00:00",0.073],["2026-08-14T15:00:00+00:00",0.0725],["2026-08-14T19:00:00+00:00",0.0735],["2026-08-14T22:00:00+00:00",0.073],["2026-08-15T02:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-15T05:00:00+00:00",0.0735],["2026-08-15T06:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-15T12:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.0735],["2026-08-15T18:00:00+00:00",0.0735],["2026-08-15T20:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-16T01:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-16T07:00:00+00:00",0.0595],["2026-08-16T08:00:00+00:00",0.0575],["2026-08-16T09:00:00+00:00",0.0555],["2026-08-16T15:00:00+00:00",0.0545],["2026-08-16T17:00:00+00:00",0.054],["2026-08-16T22:00:00+00:00",0.054],["2026-08-17T05:00:00+00:00",0.054],["2026-08-17T09:00:00+00:00",0.053],["2026-08-17T12:00:00+00:00",0.053],["2026-08-17T19:00:00+00:00",0.053],["2026-08-18T02:00:00+00:00",0.053],["2026-08-18T09:00:00+00:00",0.053],["2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00",0.088],["2026-08-18T23:10:00+00:00",0.082],["2026-08-19T04:10:00+00:00",0.0805],["2026-08-19T06:05:00+00:00",0.0795]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T07:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T06:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":9.0,"observation_count":161,"points_returned":44,"probability_range_percentage_points":3.65,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"4618a661-1455-44cc-8ac4-15710f7dfb22","title":"Yoon out of custody before 2027?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"ceca5e4f87d0a43f8f6cef58ca74d9393bfed0f621fc8e9b5d855cdc6ff0fc13","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T06:14:55.730666+00:00","source_markets":["4618a661-1455-44cc-8ac4-15710f7dfb22"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}