{"bundle_id":"4fe471a7-9d54-446a-be74-9d65ddf316da","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T02:18:18.443665+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"bc28f390-6246-4c7f-a6a7-f1fff6f4e61a","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.065,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":-1.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":132.9054,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.0435,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":244,"signal_score":1.0218,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"6011fcda-9cc0-473e-aabd-2e03ad3d46d3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T02:22:38.599097+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T02:16:12.123314+00:00","external_market_id":"567689","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.065,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":-1.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":132.9054,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.0435,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":244,"signal_score":1.0218,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T03:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T04:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T06:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T07:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T08:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T10:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T14:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-18T14:10:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-18T16:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-18T18:10:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-18T20:10:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-19T00:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-19T03:10:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-19T05:10:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T09:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T11:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T13:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T15:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T17:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T19:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T21:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-19T23:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-20T02:10:00+00:00",0.065]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T03:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T02:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":119.0,"observation_count":50,"points_returned":26,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"6011fcda-9cc0-473e-aabd-2e03ad3d46d3","title":"Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"81db8701b2ecaf4b1147d46dc0731647216d6dfb9b81725e1b8e379157c378d1","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T02:16:12.123314+00:00","source_markets":["6011fcda-9cc0-473e-aabd-2e03ad3d46d3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}