{"bundle_id":"3862834c-2bc8-49b4-825a-800395e74aa0","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T06:18:41.314408+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"33fe0c9f-1d58-4c4c-952c-a7365af41774","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.505,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":-5.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":138.7391,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":80,"signal_score":1.0652,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"3e89fc81-10dd-4626-b679-d40cab6393df","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T06:20:51.171540+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T06:14:42.804701+00:00","external_market_id":"2824614","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.505,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":-5.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":138.7391,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":80,"signal_score":1.0652,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-10T13:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.58],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.535],["2026-08-10T20:05:00+00:00",0.54],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-14T18:05:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-15T01:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-15T02:05:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-15T06:05:00+00:00",0.505]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":36.0,"observation_count":80,"points_returned":33,"probability_range_percentage_points":8.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":117.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"3e89fc81-10dd-4626-b679-d40cab6393df","title":"Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"5fa1c0781b874ef84b6239b799ec68b4a4faf188964f2050da3d22d024369067","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T06:14:42.804701+00:00","source_markets":["3e89fc81-10dd-4626-b679-d40cab6393df"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}