{"bundle_id":"098197b9-0763-41eb-b7f0-903931e1e723","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T19:16:43.255834+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"a152a02d-84ca-46ca-8ab7-335e2847a737","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.175,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-1.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":50.1974,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":38,"signal_score":2.3152,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"050fd394-ed81-4a57-8ce8-d8a09225c7ba","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T19:18:40.411183+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T19:14:41.338695+00:00","external_market_id":"2646919","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.175,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-1.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":50.1974,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":38,"signal_score":2.3152,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T06:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T11:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T13:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T20:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T21:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-11T01:05:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-11T05:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T18:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.175]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T06:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":38,"points_returned":38,"probability_range_percentage_points":3.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":37.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"050fd394-ed81-4a57-8ce8-d8a09225c7ba","title":"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"49b0ad4e114931f09d46a4fb41e9c9b67bc5f767041fceaa584caecac2f991a5","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T19:14:41.338695+00:00","source_markets":["050fd394-ed81-4a57-8ce8-d8a09225c7ba"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}