{"bundle_id":"03dbfc33-54fe-430a-9a64-eabca2f925e6","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T20:18:17.944454+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"8d4b0ed4-7acf-4c44-ac3b-a375d905d478","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0355,"data_completeness":0.0625,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.6,"delta_7d":0.2,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":43.1556,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4706,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":246,"signal_score":2.0853,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"a00bc086-ae0f-493c-82c1-5604f1eadc7d","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T20:21:02.061195+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T20:15:57.714139+00:00","external_market_id":"2126460","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0355,"data_completeness":0.0625,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.6,"delta_7d":0.2,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":43.1556,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4706,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":246,"signal_score":2.0853,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T21:00:00+00:00",0.0335],["2026-08-10T21:05:00+00:00",0.0335],["2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00",0.0335],["2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",0.046],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.046],["2026-08-11T01:00:00+00:00",0.043],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.0435],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.042],["2026-08-11T05:05:00+00:00",0.042],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.0425],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.042],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.0425],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.0425],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.05],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.0495],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.0485],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.048],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.052],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.047],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.052],["2026-08-12T03:05:00+00:00",0.0425],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.0425],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.038],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.038],["2026-08-12T11:05:00+00:00",0.035],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.038],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.037],["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.037],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.0365],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.0375],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.0365],["2026-08-13T11:05:00+00:00",0.0365],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.0295],["2026-08-17T04:05:00+00:00",0.0295],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.0325],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.033],["2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00",0.035],["2026-08-17T10:05:00+00:00",0.035],["2026-08-17T12:05:00+00:00",0.0335],["2026-08-17T13:05:00+00:00",0.0325],["2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00",0.0335],["2026-08-17T16:05:00+00:00",0.034],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-17T20:05:00+00:00",0.0355]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T21:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T20:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":87.0,"observation_count":72,"points_returned":44,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.25,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"a00bc086-ae0f-493c-82c1-5604f1eadc7d","title":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"b6f4878d730262afdba53cb2e105a85a40bda158684835ebdb59b7377a7fee51","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T20:15:57.714139+00:00","source_markets":["a00bc086-ae0f-493c-82c1-5604f1eadc7d"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}