{"bundle_id":"5f845267-3eb8-4910-a403-2229bfcf4151","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T20:17:06.314219+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"3e108dfd-15d6-4bbc-8d71-472cac73ddfb","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.365,"data_completeness":0.0417,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-3.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":79.1553,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.0909,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":44,"signal_score":1.0455,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"777f67ca-0bec-4c87-ba19-f5f966e8ba50","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T20:19:17.000481+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T20:15:25.794517+00:00","external_market_id":"2757806","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.365,"data_completeness":0.0417,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-3.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":79.1553,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.0909,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":44,"signal_score":1.0455,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-10T11:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-10T13:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-10T20:05:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-10T21:05:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-11T01:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-11T05:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.46],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.45],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.46],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.45],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.45],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.45],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-11T18:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-13T11:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-13T19:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.365]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":36.0,"observation_count":44,"points_returned":44,"probability_range_percentage_points":9.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":83.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"777f67ca-0bec-4c87-ba19-f5f966e8ba50","title":"Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"b26788a6ae27f23d98f98791f491bfa4d75b708de0acf389a3716cef81387ecf","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T20:15:25.794517+00:00","source_markets":["777f67ca-0bec-4c87-ba19-f5f966e8ba50"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}