{"bundle_id":"66d21286-d151-4046-9a15-5d3ab7c99858","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T11:17:09.232409+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"5740014c-ed5f-432f-af8e-3eff384c596c","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.5255,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.6,"delta_7d":1.3,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.5307,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":126,"signal_score":2.0239,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"72e126f8-d4ab-4ee7-98c2-63653eea8bc8","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T11:21:15.042780+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T11:15:46.604438+00:00","external_market_id":"682708","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.5255,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.6,"delta_7d":1.3,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.5307,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":126,"signal_score":2.0239,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T06:10:00+00:00",0.5125],["2026-08-10T07:10:00+00:00",0.5125],["2026-08-10T11:10:00+00:00",0.5225],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.5185],["2026-08-10T13:05:00+00:00",0.522],["2026-08-10T17:10:00+00:00",0.5215],["2026-08-10T21:10:00+00:00",0.5125],["2026-08-10T23:10:00+00:00",0.5125],["2026-08-11T02:10:00+00:00",0.52],["2026-08-11T04:10:00+00:00",0.519],["2026-08-11T06:10:00+00:00",0.5205],["2026-08-11T10:10:00+00:00",0.5205],["2026-08-11T14:10:00+00:00",0.5155],["2026-08-11T15:10:00+00:00",0.513],["2026-08-11T18:10:00+00:00",0.519],["2026-08-11T20:10:00+00:00",0.517],["2026-08-11T22:10:00+00:00",0.5185],["2026-08-12T02:10:00+00:00",0.519],["2026-08-12T04:10:00+00:00",0.5175],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.518],["2026-08-12T08:10:00+00:00",0.5195],["2026-08-12T12:10:00+00:00",0.519],["2026-08-12T17:10:00+00:00",0.533],["2026-08-12T18:10:00+00:00",0.5325],["2026-08-12T21:10:00+00:00",0.533],["2026-08-12T23:10:00+00:00",0.5325],["2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00",0.532],["2026-08-13T07:10:00+00:00",0.5305],["2026-08-13T08:10:00+00:00",0.539],["2026-08-13T10:10:00+00:00",0.5375],["2026-08-13T13:10:00+00:00",0.5415],["2026-08-13T15:10:00+00:00",0.5355],["2026-08-13T19:10:00+00:00",0.5255],["2026-08-13T21:10:00+00:00",0.5255],["2026-08-13T22:10:00+00:00",0.523],["2026-08-14T02:10:00+00:00",0.5235],["2026-08-14T05:10:00+00:00",0.5355],["2026-08-14T08:10:00+00:00",0.529],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.5355],["2026-08-14T13:10:00+00:00",0.5325],["2026-08-14T15:10:00+00:00",0.531],["2026-08-14T18:10:00+00:00",0.5515],["2026-08-14T20:10:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-15T00:10:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-15T04:05:00+00:00",0.5505],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.5505],["2026-08-15T07:10:00+00:00",0.5275],["2026-08-15T11:10:00+00:00",0.5255]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T06:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T11:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":126,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":4.1,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":125.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"72e126f8-d4ab-4ee7-98c2-63653eea8bc8","title":"Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"4df932ce856bc2b77aae68418a6e52638116fd873d6ec444694a77f3775a6435","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T11:15:46.604438+00:00","source_markets":["72e126f8-d4ab-4ee7-98c2-63653eea8bc8"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}