{"bundle_id":"b54eae60-1edb-4ed9-a3c5-e91f516d7d8c","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T15:18:34.611372+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"3d24d0cb-e39e-4dc1-9526-1f4a30e11da6","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.773,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.15,"delta_7d":-3.7,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":136.3641,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.6957,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":367,"signal_score":3.7478,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T15:20:11.408643+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T15:14:44.240081+00:00","external_market_id":"3128886","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.773,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.15,"delta_7d":-3.7,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":136.3641,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.6957,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":367,"signal_score":3.7478,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.81],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.799],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.783],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.791],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.782],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.776],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.8145],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.7975],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.812],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.8],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.7985],["2026-08-12T11:05:00+00:00",0.8425],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.8445],["2026-08-12T16:05:00+00:00",0.8355],["2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00",0.839],["2026-08-13T01:05:00+00:00",0.8425],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.8485],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.8425],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.847],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.834],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.816],["2026-08-13T19:05:00+00:00",0.8325],["2026-08-14T00:05:00+00:00",0.8205],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.816],["2026-08-14T07:05:00+00:00",0.816],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.781],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.7765],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.7855],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7925],["2026-08-15T00:05:00+00:00",0.7795],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.7795],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.7835],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.7835],["2026-08-15T14:05:00+00:00",0.799],["2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00",0.7995],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.791],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.791],["2026-08-16T04:05:00+00:00",0.7985],["2026-08-16T10:05:00+00:00",0.795],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.7925],["2026-08-16T17:05:00+00:00",0.7985],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.8095],["2026-08-17T00:05:00+00:00",0.806],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.7935],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.793],["2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00",0.7705],["2026-08-17T15:05:00+00:00",0.773]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T15:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":7.8,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"9c8fd16cfa16aebe21bd7678474327813c86786afbcab299fc784f9cf92ddaea","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T15:14:44.240081+00:00","source_markets":["9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}