{"bundle_id":"58d7dc3b-8563-4c30-8ee3-a5b105930585","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T00:17:10.989010+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"29491d84-ed14-4728-9252-2a4b2f74cecd","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.165,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":-13.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":48.9894,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":232,"signal_score":3.3152,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"0baea902-6aeb-4fd7-a85c-689d81900e15","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T00:19:22.493987+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T00:15:19.339226+00:00","external_market_id":"2774057","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.165,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":-13.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":48.9894,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":232,"signal_score":3.3152,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-05T01:00:00+00:00",0.3],["2026-08-05T02:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-05T05:00:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-05T09:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-05T14:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-05T16:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-05T18:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-06T07:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-06T14:00:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-06T20:00:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-06T21:00:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-07T03:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-07T04:00:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-07T11:00:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-07T12:00:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-07T13:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-07T19:00:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-07T20:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-08T02:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-08T09:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-08T15:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-09T13:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-09T19:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-09T21:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-09T22:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-10T04:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-10T05:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-10T11:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-10T20:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.165]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-05T01:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":45,"probability_range_percentage_points":18.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"0baea902-6aeb-4fd7-a85c-689d81900e15","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"efdda62933edb1531d72bcfeda5041cde470de2575b10cb7aeb45559c26c2048","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T00:15:19.339226+00:00","source_markets":["0baea902-6aeb-4fd7-a85c-689d81900e15"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}