{"bundle_id":"cdadc875-117b-45f9-8558-66ca11a94d5a","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T01:22:57.071668+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"72b2ecf6-4a2a-451b-8111-c9434b7346e8","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.175,"data_completeness":0.0764,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-19.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.9464,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1429,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":178,"signal_score":1.0715,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"56abaf89-b2f7-4d59-a4f6-c2983d993f65","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T01:23:39.676835+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T01:17:15.325870+00:00","external_market_id":"2677132","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.175,"data_completeness":0.0764,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-19.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.9464,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1429,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":178,"signal_score":1.0715,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T02:00:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-12T03:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-12T10:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-12T17:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-12T23:00:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-13T04:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-13T10:00:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-13T14:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-13T18:00:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-13T21:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-14T04:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-14T05:00:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-14T12:00:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-14T18:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-14T19:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-14T22:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T02:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-15T09:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-15T16:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-15T17:00:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-15T23:00:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-16T06:00:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-16T13:00:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-16T20:00:00+00:00",0.31],["2026-08-16T21:00:00+00:00",0.31],["2026-08-17T04:00:00+00:00",0.31],["2026-08-17T11:00:00+00:00",0.31],["2026-08-17T18:00:00+00:00",0.31],["2026-08-17T23:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-18T01:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-18T08:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-18T12:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-19T00:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-19T01:05:00+00:00",0.175]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T02:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T01:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":4.0,"observation_count":166,"points_returned":39,"probability_range_percentage_points":21.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"56abaf89-b2f7-4d59-a4f6-c2983d993f65","title":"Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"295e65173e41110a322e7e90a6ff0f29c11b0c7ed1baaaa0bf94745e34906cc6","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T01:17:15.325870+00:00","source_markets":["56abaf89-b2f7-4d59-a4f6-c2983d993f65"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}