{"bundle_id":"27652f3f-3f28-4491-a655-d1a9e9a878d9","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T01:18:18.319424+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"93857617-d1a4-4319-85e9-e850e9645701","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.445,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":5.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":139.9467,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":169,"signal_score":3.3125,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"a9fc3f7b-2427-411d-8fa7-ceedfbe8c32e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T01:21:11.113284+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T01:16:41.064140+00:00","external_market_id":"567688","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.445,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":5.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":139.9467,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":169,"signal_score":3.3125,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-06T02:00:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-06T03:00:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-06T10:00:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-06T17:00:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-07T01:00:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-07T15:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-07T17:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-07T22:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-08T05:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-09T10:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T15:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-11T06:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-11T11:00:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-11T17:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-11T20:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-12T04:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-12T09:00:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-12T11:00:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-12T16:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-12T18:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-13T01:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00",0.445]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-06T02:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":34,"probability_range_percentage_points":9.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"a9fc3f7b-2427-411d-8fa7-ceedfbe8c32e","title":"Netanyahu out by end of 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"a81bc14e3bf1c90646fee53bad2a9f5be3b668f4db51ea00135849cfa6af8a40","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T01:16:41.064140+00:00","source_markets":["a9fc3f7b-2427-411d-8fa7-ceedfbe8c32e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}