{"bundle_id":"b1515166-19f4-497c-b2b9-d2ad3f05ed3a","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T21:18:07.956847+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"e6704699-62a8-4d09-a41c-3d57fc226e1a","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.9825,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.35,"delta_7d":11.25,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":3.1138,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":253,"signal_score":2.8392,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"42b85d3b-b5a3-4fff-b6d6-ae037cd080d4","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T21:19:00.018163+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T21:15:07.816681+00:00","external_market_id":"2952488","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.9825,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.35,"delta_7d":11.25,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":3.1138,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":253,"signal_score":2.8392,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-05T22:00:00+00:00",0.87],["2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00",0.865],["2026-08-06T02:00:00+00:00",0.875],["2026-08-06T06:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-06T09:00:00+00:00",0.905],["2026-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",0.905],["2026-08-06T19:00:00+00:00",0.865],["2026-08-06T20:00:00+00:00",0.87],["2026-08-06T22:00:00+00:00",0.885],["2026-08-07T04:00:00+00:00",0.885],["2026-08-07T06:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-07T11:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.905],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00",0.915],["2026-08-08T01:00:00+00:00",0.915],["2026-08-08T07:00:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-08T09:00:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-08T11:00:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-09T13:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-09T16:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-09T20:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-10T01:05:00+00:00",0.965],["2026-08-10T03:05:00+00:00",0.9555],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.949],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.9515],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.9595],["2026-08-10T20:05:00+00:00",0.9575],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.9685],["2026-08-11T01:05:00+00:00",0.963],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.967],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.9665],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.972],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.971],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.969],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.9695],["2026-08-12T03:05:00+00:00",0.9465],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.966],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.969],["2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00",0.969],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.9815],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.9825]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-15T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-05T22:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":46,"probability_range_percentage_points":11.75,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"42b85d3b-b5a3-4fff-b6d6-ae037cd080d4","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"91b26ac58d011ea237ccf594b0b1431738fe56623e83b840f4d21f8a9a38a6c3","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T21:15:07.816681+00:00","source_markets":["42b85d3b-b5a3-4fff-b6d6-ae037cd080d4"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}