{"bundle_id":"8a8e1d72-b291-4b48-895c-154ede40ce40","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T20:16:10.208974+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"bcba503a-5ce8-4993-98b5-e2d44f3ee425","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.315,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-2.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":141.156,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.087,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":222,"signal_score":2.2935,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"085c2979-250c-4d65-baaf-e0a2def256a5","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T20:19:26.903408+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T20:15:23.397979+00:00","external_market_id":"682705","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.315,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-2.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":141.156,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.087,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":222,"signal_score":2.2935,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-04T21:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-04T22:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-05T05:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-05T09:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-05T13:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-05T21:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-06T05:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-06T21:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-07T03:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-07T05:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-07T13:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-08T05:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-09T11:10:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-09T15:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-09T19:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-10T01:10:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-10T05:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-10T11:10:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-10T20:10:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-11T04:10:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-11T20:10:00+00:00",0.315]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-04T21:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T20:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":2.0,"observation_count":185,"points_returned":30,"probability_range_percentage_points":4.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"085c2979-250c-4d65-baaf-e0a2def256a5","title":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"501b877ce341391c568ab3335f4f83183074aa869de10a2da497251d165e3dc4","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T20:15:23.397979+00:00","source_markets":["085c2979-250c-4d65-baaf-e0a2def256a5"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}