{"bundle_id":"a39dba7f-7912-4f1b-aa70-16148158cefa","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T02:19:59.544997+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"fd4d763c-6f97-4453-b779-7a8a4a883a81","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0278,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":0.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":13.9055,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1429,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":190,"signal_score":1.0715,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"5c8e6f39-9b7a-4b84-b23a-549b304f7931","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T02:21:33.538385+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T02:15:07.871478+00:00","external_market_id":"2849008","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0278,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":0.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":13.9055,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1429,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":190,"signal_score":1.0715,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T03:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-11T04:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-11T06:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-11T09:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-11T14:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-11T18:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-11T19:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-12T05:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-12T10:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-12T15:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-12T20:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T01:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T06:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T11:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T17:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T22:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-14T03:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-14T08:00:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-14T13:00:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-14T15:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-14T18:00:00+00:00",0.06],["2026-08-14T22:00:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-14T23:00:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-15T03:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-15T03:05:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-15T06:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-16T00:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T20:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00",0.075]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T03:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":40.0,"observation_count":119,"points_returned":37,"probability_range_percentage_points":3.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"5c8e6f39-9b7a-4b84-b23a-549b304f7931","title":"Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"de69f269dd0ef6e6bb1ca255b42ff03919705df513f2d139baf391015093eabd","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T02:15:07.871478+00:00","source_markets":["5c8e6f39-9b7a-4b84-b23a-549b304f7931"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}