{"bundle_id":"e158db32-4199-4ba0-bdbf-d480474d4026","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T18:20:50.483994+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"8b26fb84-1db5-415b-811b-3f4864af608e","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.49,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-6.5,"delta_7d":-0.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.239,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":199,"signal_score":7.9167,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"dc9193db-4dfc-4e7b-bb47-7d3c905d5033","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T18:21:32.846352+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:15:50.153119+00:00","external_market_id":"1397281","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.49,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-6.5,"delta_7d":-0.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.239,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":199,"signal_score":7.9167,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T19:00:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-12T20:00:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.47],["2026-08-13T03:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-13T09:00:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-13T11:00:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-13T17:00:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-13T18:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-13T19:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-14T02:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-14T04:00:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-14T09:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-14T12:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-14T17:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-15T08:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-15T10:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-15T16:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-15T23:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-16T07:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-16T12:00:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-16T14:00:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-16T22:00:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-17T05:00:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-17T13:00:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-17T21:00:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-18T04:00:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-18T10:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-18T12:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-18T13:00:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-18T21:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-19T08:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-19T09:05:00+00:00",0.535],["2026-08-19T10:05:00+00:00",0.535],["2026-08-19T16:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-19T18:05:00+00:00",0.49]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T19:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T18:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":176,"points_returned":39,"probability_range_percentage_points":10.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"dc9193db-4dfc-4e7b-bb47-7d3c905d5033","title":"Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"10a314bb317098ab327ece89c9e4ac00effd840bd544aefd3f76d1b6b8fded09","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:15:50.153119+00:00","source_markets":["dc9193db-4dfc-4e7b-bb47-7d3c905d5033"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}