{"bundle_id":"aef39cee-e4d0-4634-8ea9-0c25194de7a6","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T07:18:47.750882+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"eb35d84d-506f-43ab-88f4-aa9540d3251a","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.14,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.5,"delta_7d":3.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.6975,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":176,"signal_score":3.8125,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"8f3bdc78-c55b-4986-b367-f50609268293","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T07:21:36.528440+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T07:15:35.519324+00:00","external_market_id":"3085137","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.14,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.5,"delta_7d":3.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.6975,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":176,"signal_score":3.8125,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-08T09:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-08T18:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-09T02:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-09T14:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-09T21:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-10T11:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-10T15:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-10T19:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-11T02:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-11T09:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-12T07:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-13T05:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-13T14:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-13T19:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-13T20:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-14T02:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-14T07:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-14T10:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-14T13:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-14T17:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-14T20:00:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.14]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":36,"probability_range_percentage_points":8.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"8f3bdc78-c55b-4986-b367-f50609268293","title":"Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"bef2dec4876e8a747f9f90b7d8b3b19b5c6730c5a72b28afd21e2b957177593f","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T07:15:35.519324+00:00","source_markets":["8f3bdc78-c55b-4986-b367-f50609268293"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}