{"bundle_id":"1ad59aab-4f18-4c33-9e45-85050ca94c09","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T05:19:02.323412+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"df6a2890-e7cb-4e16-9c8f-e94887fbc01c","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.265,"data_completeness":0.0347,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-8.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":139.7801,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1111,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":198,"signal_score":2.3056,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"80162946-ce84-461e-b44e-6a2da1e7d818","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T05:22:02.325881+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T05:16:40.396809+00:00","external_market_id":"2243897","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.265,"data_completeness":0.0347,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-8.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":139.7801,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1111,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":198,"signal_score":2.3056,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-06T06:00:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-06T07:00:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-06T10:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-06T20:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-07T02:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-07T22:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-08T05:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-08T18:00:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-09T01:00:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-09T14:00:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-09T21:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-10T10:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-10T15:00:00+00:00",0.34],["2026-08-10T17:00:00+00:00",0.34],["2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",0.34],["2026-08-11T09:00:00+00:00",0.34],["2026-08-11T10:00:00+00:00",0.3],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.3],["2026-08-11T18:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-11T22:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-12T02:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.265]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-06T06:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":13.0,"observation_count":155,"points_returned":34,"probability_range_percentage_points":10.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"80162946-ce84-461e-b44e-6a2da1e7d818","title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"abc4e79c4efe37b19f63006a3798e9f1969b1792bd8e87345b1ae04ee10ecaa3","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T05:16:40.396809+00:00","source_markets":["80162946-ce84-461e-b44e-6a2da1e7d818"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}