{"bundle_id":"fea2dfa6-d35f-4c2e-a0fe-35ac6a0ee493","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T02:20:51.259672+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"a3a20f2e-c6d0-4b5d-a763-19f3812c9cfe","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.994,"data_completeness":0.0451,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":36.4,"delta_7d":24.9,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.4058,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":79,"signal_score":37.8166,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"a62e613a-6e4f-435d-8db3-07e0cdbca250","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T02:21:32.636182+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T02:15:38.659702+00:00","external_market_id":"2159718","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.994,"data_completeness":0.0451,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":36.4,"delta_7d":24.9,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.4058,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":79,"signal_score":37.8166,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.745],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.745],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.745],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.7],["2026-08-14T08:05:00+00:00",0.7],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.7],["2026-08-14T12:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.7],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-14T18:05:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-14T21:05:00+00:00",0.7],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-15T00:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-15T04:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-15T10:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-16T00:05:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-16T03:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-17T04:05:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-17T10:05:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.645],["2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00",0.645],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.63],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.63],["2026-08-18T04:05:00+00:00",0.63],["2026-08-18T07:05:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-18T20:05:00+00:00",0.985],["2026-08-18T21:05:00+00:00",0.9935],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.9925],["2026-08-19T01:05:00+00:00",0.9965],["2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00",0.994]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":22.0,"observation_count":79,"points_returned":38,"probability_range_percentage_points":37.15,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":162.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"a62e613a-6e4f-435d-8db3-07e0cdbca250","title":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"a5a93e4fdc6b1a56e6f7be2402fafd8373e1d34f3cbd29d256291b43ef1b779e","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T02:15:38.659702+00:00","source_markets":["a62e613a-6e4f-435d-8db3-07e0cdbca250"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}