{"bundle_id":"b89ecdf0-ecd8-49e7-8d06-2db535e269ef","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T17:18:34.586867+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"34ef7bff-c442-42ee-ab0a-644775c92a35","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.255,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":-41.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":9.2805,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3043,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":225,"signal_score":2.4022,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"2f66b5c6-e574-4db8-859f-1d89e344f8f1","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T17:19:53.540859+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T17:15:01.556830+00:00","external_market_id":"2663611","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.255,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":-41.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":9.2805,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3043,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":225,"signal_score":2.4022,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-04T18:00:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-04T19:00:00+00:00",0.69],["2026-08-04T23:00:00+00:00",0.645],["2026-08-05T02:00:00+00:00",0.675],["2026-08-05T07:00:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-05T09:00:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-05T10:00:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-05T16:00:00+00:00",0.735],["2026-08-05T20:00:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-06T01:00:00+00:00",0.74],["2026-08-06T04:00:00+00:00",0.765],["2026-08-06T09:00:00+00:00",0.785],["2026-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",0.755],["2026-08-06T16:00:00+00:00",0.75],["2026-08-06T20:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-06T21:00:00+00:00",0.735],["2026-08-06T22:00:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-07T06:00:00+00:00",0.745],["2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-07T12:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-07T19:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-07T22:00:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-08T03:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-08T04:00:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.62],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.615],["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-09T12:05:00+00:00",0.545],["2026-08-09T14:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-09T19:05:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-09T21:05:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-10T03:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-10T04:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-10T20:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.255]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-20T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-04T18:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":58.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"2f66b5c6-e574-4db8-859f-1d89e344f8f1","title":"US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"c53dbe7dedeba437bea75f469df1936c5b5344acd1bfd541e85b5a775823d84d","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T17:15:01.556830+00:00","source_markets":["2f66b5c6-e574-4db8-859f-1d89e344f8f1"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}