{"bundle_id":"6f1b3023-facf-4a12-9326-9c6e2e1b6a67","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-16T06:18:14.461705+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"8c21ae93-ef81-48af-9865-1f02451e1490","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.335,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":5.5,"delta_7d":6.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":34.7401,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":203,"signal_score":5.625,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"9a7aefc2-5cd1-4092-b201-2c75c1a78d06","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-16T06:20:31.810518+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T06:14:18.434854+00:00","external_market_id":"789952","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.335,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":5.5,"delta_7d":6.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":34.7401,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":203,"signal_score":5.625,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-09T10:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-09T13:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-09T15:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-09T17:00:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-09T19:00:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-09T19:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-09T20:00:00+00:00",0.21],["2026-08-09T21:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-09T22:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-10T00:10:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-10T02:00:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-10T03:00:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-10T04:10:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-10T05:05:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-10T07:00:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-10T11:10:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-10T13:05:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-15T04:05:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-15T07:10:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-16T00:10:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-16T03:10:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-16T05:10:00+00:00",0.34],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.335]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":106.9,"observation_count":60,"points_returned":32,"probability_range_percentage_points":15.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"9a7aefc2-5cd1-4092-b201-2c75c1a78d06","title":"Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"620f0e3c2534c10fd667a748fc45eb47ec01c049adc52505b4d4cc48f02aeccf","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T06:14:18.434854+00:00","source_markets":["9a7aefc2-5cd1-4092-b201-2c75c1a78d06"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}