{"bundle_id":"291bb666-1437-4407-9b21-4905f8d568b5","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T23:17:57.247168+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"ebbeeaa6-e007-4901-ab9d-3991e69eec0d","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.4,"data_completeness":0.0729,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":6.0,"delta_7d":-44.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":16.0305,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.5,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":260,"signal_score":7.5,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T23:19:25.792766+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T23:15:07.959816+00:00","external_market_id":"3348048","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.4,"data_completeness":0.0729,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":6.0,"delta_7d":-44.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":16.0305,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.5,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":260,"signal_score":7.5,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00",0.84],["2026-08-09T01:00:00+00:00",0.87],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.77],["2026-08-09T10:00:00+00:00",0.76],["2026-08-09T15:00:00+00:00",0.765],["2026-08-09T21:00:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-10T05:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.62],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.61],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.62],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-12T03:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.58],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T00:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.52],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.33],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.24],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.31],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T18:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.33],["2026-08-15T13:05:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-15T17:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-15T22:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.4]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":5.0,"observation_count":164,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":63.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","title":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"255ace3ba88f941ee69b4e674aaa5bd57b714a6f16fbcbd6a0e620326a4f7c70","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T23:15:07.959816+00:00","source_markets":["d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}