{"bundle_id":"7b59485e-87a9-4227-8973-df0fa036821e","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T19:18:44.619770+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"dde39e75-63c8-4a26-8422-9ad092a5d8d1","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.325,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-34.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":46.1969,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.087,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":314,"signal_score":2.2935,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"63c97edd-4727-46c8-9423-d25670ad25ea","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T19:19:21.994727+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T19:15:31.781048+00:00","external_market_id":"3247642","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.325,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-34.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":46.1969,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.087,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":314,"signal_score":2.2935,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-09T02:00:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.645],["2026-08-09T12:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-09T17:00:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-09T20:00:00+00:00",0.515],["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.515],["2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00",0.52],["2026-08-10T03:00:00+00:00",0.515],["2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-10T06:10:00+00:00",0.515],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-10T13:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.525],["2026-08-10T21:05:00+00:00",0.525],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.515],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.535],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-12T03:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.45],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-13T19:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-14T01:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-14T08:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-15T03:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-15T11:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-15T13:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00",0.325]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":182,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":36.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"63c97edd-4727-46c8-9423-d25670ad25ea","title":"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"496b33a06e51b82b9e67c43286ed9eedfc2cb1532c9460b189e9d610d0385457","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T19:15:31.781048+00:00","source_markets":["63c97edd-4727-46c8-9423-d25670ad25ea"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}