{"bundle_id":"29902e2f-095d-4bd8-ad2e-ee2acf81e098","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T05:19:49.533530+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"aef8ae42-f582-490e-913d-92c466d733f8","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.445,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-15.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.7814,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.0435,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":309,"signal_score":1.0218,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"99fda957-5889-4fc6-ab95-d26ba06de8d2","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T05:20:42.873791+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T05:14:48.738125+00:00","external_market_id":"2176270","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.445,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-15.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.7814,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.0435,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":309,"signal_score":1.0218,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-08T07:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-08T15:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-09T02:00:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-09T11:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-09T13:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-09T18:05:00+00:00",0.535],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-10T01:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-10T04:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.525],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-11T22:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-12T11:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-12T18:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-14T07:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-14T21:05:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.445]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":39,"probability_range_percentage_points":15.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"99fda957-5889-4fc6-ab95-d26ba06de8d2","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"52dcdc845a221fe5d98871f9d1e70c57415b772fb12625c1ba1b439260c3390c","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T05:14:48.738125+00:00","source_markets":["99fda957-5889-4fc6-ab95-d26ba06de8d2"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}