{"bundle_id":"4539b556-419c-45c5-a723-cfffbf0ee336","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-14T10:19:21.566605+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"950e8407-1372-425c-acef-d713e1d2aea7","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.15,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-6.5,"delta_7d":-40.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":17.5721,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":253,"signal_score":7.9456,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"bcd9708b-943d-4c9b-b8b1-fb26b2ec72a4","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-14T10:20:54.694319+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T10:15:14.501910+00:00","external_market_id":"3324625","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.15,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-6.5,"delta_7d":-40.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":17.5721,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":253,"signal_score":7.9456,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-07T11:00:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-07T17:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-07T20:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-07T22:00:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-08T05:00:00+00:00",0.645],["2026-08-08T09:00:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.62],["2026-08-08T14:00:00+00:00",0.47],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.45],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-09T01:00:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-09T11:00:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-09T14:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-09T16:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-09T22:00:00+00:00",0.22],["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T04:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-10T11:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-11T22:05:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-12T05:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-12T14:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-13T11:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.15]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-07T11:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":174,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":49.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"bcd9708b-943d-4c9b-b8b1-fb26b2ec72a4","title":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"c15e447c7fc1da0121d096c8e2df295fae307885c5600cf4342157cd4c4811b2","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T10:15:14.501910+00:00","source_markets":["bcd9708b-943d-4c9b-b8b1-fb26b2ec72a4"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}