{"bundle_id":"03641206-676f-4a08-8e35-1d8a09c26435","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T07:17:53.530709+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"743dabf6-44fd-4863-8992-8dac7f1612a9","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.1385,"data_completeness":0.0694,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":0.85,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":14.6975,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.5263,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":194,"signal_score":3.5132,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"8fe60b51-9dfb-474a-bdda-6dfbb5f8cf3a","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T07:21:44.454875+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T07:14:39.010709+00:00","external_market_id":"2851406","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.1385,"data_completeness":0.0694,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":0.85,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":14.6975,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.5263,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":194,"signal_score":3.5132,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-10T09:00:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-10T11:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-10T16:00:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-11T06:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-11T17:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-11T20:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T03:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T10:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T17:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T19:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T04:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T07:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T10:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-13T14:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T22:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-14T05:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-14T12:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-14T13:00:00+00:00",0.06],["2026-08-14T19:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-14T23:00:00+00:00",0.0355],["2026-08-15T02:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-15T13:00:00+00:00",0.064],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.0655],["2026-08-15T16:00:00+00:00",0.0645],["2026-08-15T19:00:00+00:00",0.22],["2026-08-15T23:00:00+00:00",0.1425],["2026-08-16T02:00:00+00:00",0.1085],["2026-08-16T05:05:00+00:00",0.1085],["2026-08-16T11:05:00+00:00",0.1395],["2026-08-16T14:05:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.124],["2026-08-17T02:05:00+00:00",0.1205],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.137],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.1385]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":5.0,"observation_count":165,"points_returned":38,"probability_range_percentage_points":18.45,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"8fe60b51-9dfb-474a-bdda-6dfbb5f8cf3a","title":"Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"b0fe66e40bd3ad89f60ecb5e78380574cc4a347efed7e73c8d159c8d44476e84","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T07:14:39.010709+00:00","source_markets":["8fe60b51-9dfb-474a-bdda-6dfbb5f8cf3a"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}