{"bundle_id":"7c1b709f-af9c-4605-a6a0-e539a54602a3","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T02:17:00.344808+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"d3784c97-8aab-450e-b5da-707116703f57","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0764,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":1.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":139.9055,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.0952,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":194,"signal_score":2.0476,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"6011fcda-9cc0-473e-aabd-2e03ad3d46d3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T02:20:43.341816+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T02:16:07.859908+00:00","external_market_id":"567689","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0764,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":1.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":139.9055,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.0952,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":194,"signal_score":2.0476,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-06T03:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-06T04:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-06T11:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-06T18:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-07T01:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-07T15:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-07T22:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-08T04:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-09T10:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-09T14:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T13:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-10T15:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T18:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-10T22:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-11T05:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-11T20:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-12T02:10:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-12T03:10:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-12T16:10:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-13T02:10:00+00:00",0.075]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-06T03:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T02:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":3.0,"observation_count":167,"points_returned":34,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"6011fcda-9cc0-473e-aabd-2e03ad3d46d3","title":"Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"4442139ea8a4dd617fd59a3fc5a86b39a5b7eeae594efdd64db55de1ee0ef9e3","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T02:16:07.859908+00:00","source_markets":["6011fcda-9cc0-473e-aabd-2e03ad3d46d3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}