{"bundle_id":"52541780-0ed6-428c-8fab-e31adaaffa77","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T05:19:08.730459+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"73a4c3cd-147c-46e5-8336-86b202cdc41a","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.085,"data_completeness":0.0382,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-4.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.7813,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":280,"signal_score":2.15,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"939eab7e-902c-4587-a699-00834943d0af","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T05:21:58.639387+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T05:14:57.259721+00:00","external_market_id":"2658303","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.085,"data_completeness":0.0382,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-4.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.7813,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":280,"signal_score":2.15,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-13T00:05:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-13T03:05:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-15T01:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-15T04:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-15T10:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-17T21:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-18T04:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.085]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":43.0,"observation_count":71,"points_returned":31,"probability_range_percentage_points":6.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"939eab7e-902c-4587-a699-00834943d0af","title":"Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"4ea94f72cc0661e7662605b855e599e006f5de3e2bc5052df8047a3cda78988b","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T05:14:57.259721+00:00","source_markets":["939eab7e-902c-4587-a699-00834943d0af"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}