{"bundle_id":"c2633a11-1f24-4e42-bc74-b100cf547dbe","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T15:15:57.282310+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"24ccb305-a0f8-4692-a144-5dcb58ac9291","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.214,"data_completeness":0.0729,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.85,"delta_7d":-5.6,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":2.3646,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.35,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":222,"signal_score":2.275,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"8ff9f7ef-4706-4afe-9cdc-530c3e2fd181","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T15:19:14.269901+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T15:14:59.003102+00:00","external_market_id":"907604","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.214,"data_completeness":0.0729,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.85,"delta_7d":-5.6,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":2.3646,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.35,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":222,"signal_score":2.275,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.271],["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.298],["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.301],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.2975],["2026-08-09T11:00:00+00:00",0.298],["2026-08-09T12:00:00+00:00",0.2955],["2026-08-09T14:00:00+00:00",0.2955],["2026-08-09T16:00:00+00:00",0.296],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.297],["2026-08-10T03:00:00+00:00",0.2955],["2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00",0.296],["2026-08-10T11:00:00+00:00",0.2845],["2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00",0.293],["2026-08-10T14:00:00+00:00",0.296],["2026-08-10T19:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-10T22:00:00+00:00",0.2945],["2026-08-11T02:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-11T05:00:00+00:00",0.294],["2026-08-11T11:00:00+00:00",0.291],["2026-08-11T14:00:00+00:00",0.2835],["2026-08-11T20:00:00+00:00",0.2655],["2026-08-11T22:00:00+00:00",0.296],["2026-08-11T23:00:00+00:00",0.2935],["2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00",0.297],["2026-08-12T09:00:00+00:00",0.302],["2026-08-12T13:00:00+00:00",0.2685],["2026-08-12T15:00:00+00:00",0.21],["2026-08-12T20:00:00+00:00",0.2775],["2026-08-12T22:00:00+00:00",0.2785],["2026-08-13T02:00:00+00:00",0.209],["2026-08-13T05:00:00+00:00",0.142],["2026-08-13T08:10:00+00:00",0.248],["2026-08-13T09:10:00+00:00",0.2605],["2026-08-13T13:10:00+00:00",0.2265],["2026-08-13T18:10:00+00:00",0.262],["2026-08-13T19:10:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-14T01:10:00+00:00",0.2085],["2026-08-14T04:10:00+00:00",0.2155],["2026-08-14T07:10:00+00:00",0.2245],["2026-08-14T08:10:00+00:00",0.217],["2026-08-14T15:10:00+00:00",0.2175],["2026-08-14T23:10:00+00:00",0.2315],["2026-08-15T00:10:00+00:00",0.2225],["2026-08-15T02:10:00+00:00",0.2085],["2026-08-15T07:10:00+00:00",0.2145],["2026-08-15T09:10:00+00:00",0.2095],["2026-08-15T15:10:00+00:00",0.214]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T15:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":4.0,"observation_count":167,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":16.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"8ff9f7ef-4706-4afe-9cdc-530c3e2fd181","title":"Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"ca73acdccf0dc81b47904537460f4c12f31bb561a90b67281179c255ae0d59f9","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T15:14:59.003102+00:00","source_markets":["8ff9f7ef-4706-4afe-9cdc-530c3e2fd181"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}