{"bundle_id":"5b1abc62-4f06-4c83-830b-40e87dcfab86","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T04:22:14.376993+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"adb28eca-23b6-404f-b32f-116939d5bfd4","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.4425,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":39.45,"delta_7d":27.75,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":1.4878,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.7083,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":189,"signal_score":41.0541,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"d5977c0b-b72e-473a-bf15-319b612f44c6","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T04:24:30.622981+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T04:17:32.526729+00:00","external_market_id":"3506011","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.4425,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":39.45,"delta_7d":27.75,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":1.4878,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.7083,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":189,"signal_score":41.0541,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T05:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T06:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T08:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-13T13:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-13T21:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-14T04:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-14T12:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-14T17:00:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-14T18:00:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-14T21:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-14T21:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-14T23:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-15T03:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-15T10:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-15T17:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-15T20:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-16T01:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-16T02:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-16T06:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-16T09:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-16T17:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-16T22:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-17T00:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-17T01:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T08:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-17T09:00:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-17T16:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-17T22:00:00+00:00",0.036],["2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00",0.0445],["2026-08-18T06:00:00+00:00",0.033],["2026-08-18T07:00:00+00:00",0.027],["2026-08-18T12:00:00+00:00",0.019],["2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00",0.0125],["2026-08-18T21:00:00+00:00",0.0265],["2026-08-19T00:00:00+00:00",0.0285],["2026-08-19T05:00:00+00:00",0.048],["2026-08-19T07:00:00+00:00",0.071],["2026-08-19T09:00:00+00:00",0.141],["2026-08-19T13:00:00+00:00",0.109],["2026-08-19T18:05:00+00:00",0.3595],["2026-08-19T20:05:00+00:00",0.267],["2026-08-20T03:05:00+00:00",0.3795],["2026-08-20T04:05:00+00:00",0.4425]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-21T16:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T05:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T04:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":177,"points_returned":43,"probability_range_percentage_points":43.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"d5977c0b-b72e-473a-bf15-319b612f44c6","title":"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"879977965ca18db9b565d45236feaecf61d8df57f32424554d5db06ed43f5628","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T04:17:32.526729+00:00","source_markets":["d5977c0b-b72e-473a-bf15-319b612f44c6"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}