{"bundle_id":"630a9b3a-f1b4-4b3a-aa6d-f827c556c181","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T09:48:21.564589+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"d4418a6f-0ead-4bab-9aee-c44c365358f0","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.1635,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":9.65,"delta_7d":13.85,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":5.2625,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.5833,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":126,"signal_score":11.1917,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"3a9f1fd6-e453-40bf-8317-0d26fa690784","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T09:49:45.483913+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T09:41:58.441719+00:00","external_market_id":"3595816","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.1635,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":9.65,"delta_7d":13.85,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":5.2625,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.5833,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":126,"signal_score":11.1917,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-15T05:00:00+00:00",0.025],["2026-08-15T07:00:00+00:00",0.021],["2026-08-15T08:00:00+00:00",0.023],["2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00",0.0225],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.0205],["2026-08-15T16:00:00+00:00",0.0205],["2026-08-15T21:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-15T22:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-16T02:00:00+00:00",0.019],["2026-08-16T03:00:00+00:00",0.019],["2026-08-16T08:00:00+00:00",0.019],["2026-08-16T15:00:00+00:00",0.0195],["2026-08-16T17:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-16T19:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-16T22:00:00+00:00",0.0155],["2026-08-17T01:00:00+00:00",0.0155],["2026-08-17T06:00:00+00:00",0.0155],["2026-08-17T10:00:00+00:00",0.0135],["2026-08-17T11:00:00+00:00",0.0135],["2026-08-17T17:00:00+00:00",0.0135],["2026-08-17T19:00:00+00:00",0.0125],["2026-08-17T22:00:00+00:00",0.0125],["2026-08-18T03:00:00+00:00",0.014],["2026-08-18T04:00:00+00:00",0.014],["2026-08-18T05:00:00+00:00",0.0135],["2026-08-18T09:00:00+00:00",0.0135],["2026-08-18T16:00:00+00:00",0.5035],["2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00",0.0075],["2026-08-18T20:00:00+00:00",0.008],["2026-08-18T22:00:00+00:00",0.027],["2026-08-19T01:00:00+00:00",0.0175],["2026-08-19T06:00:00+00:00",0.0285],["2026-08-19T08:00:00+00:00",0.0285],["2026-08-19T11:00:00+00:00",0.0675],["2026-08-19T12:00:00+00:00",0.0515],["2026-08-19T16:00:00+00:00",0.0995],["2026-08-19T17:00:00+00:00",0.1095],["2026-08-19T20:05:00+00:00",0.1405],["2026-08-19T22:05:00+00:00",0.1415],["2026-08-20T00:05:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-20T06:05:00+00:00",0.1385],["2026-08-20T08:05:00+00:00",0.163],["2026-08-20T09:05:00+00:00",0.1635]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-25T16:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-15T05:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T09:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":126,"points_returned":43,"probability_range_percentage_points":49.6,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":124.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"3a9f1fd6-e453-40bf-8317-0d26fa690784","title":"Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"4e9fb7b7e65e2822b3290aa4072f96194452fe0cce7dd5774fd91ffc63191b50","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T09:41:58.441719+00:00","source_markets":["3a9f1fd6-e453-40bf-8317-0d26fa690784"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}