{"bundle_id":"d91628a6-99d6-4785-8238-1cba32dfe0e3","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T08:19:30.396981+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"753499e7-62ca-42ba-9937-63e4a0aec1af","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":-54.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":3.6555,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":198,"signal_score":3.3587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"368f4cd3-ec48-41f8-8e1c-32e7bdee2de3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T08:20:19.561722+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T08:15:06.844619+00:00","external_market_id":"3324624","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":-54.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":3.6555,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":198,"signal_score":3.3587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-05T09:00:00+00:00",0.62],["2026-08-05T13:00:00+00:00",0.6],["2026-08-05T15:00:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-05T17:00:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-05T19:00:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-06T05:00:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-06T12:00:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",0.47],["2026-08-06T16:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-06T20:00:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-06T22:00:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-07T04:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-07T05:00:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-07T10:00:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-07T17:00:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-08T03:00:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-09T11:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-09T15:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-09T20:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T21:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-10T01:10:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-10T05:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.04],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.075]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-15T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-05T09:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":65.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"368f4cd3-ec48-41f8-8e1c-32e7bdee2de3","title":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"476e786c4032449d80dd2f11f853627023e79f773398255f21588d3f4f11cd2f","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T08:15:06.844619+00:00","source_markets":["368f4cd3-ec48-41f8-8e1c-32e7bdee2de3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}