{"bundle_id":"2d7079bd-8670-457d-ae0a-b4bd45e29235","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T11:21:08.616552+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"9cdf6e06-4a8f-43de-b8cd-e53249200a3d","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.7625,"data_completeness":0.0799,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.75,"delta_7d":20.45,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":41.531,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4091,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":425,"signal_score":3.2045,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T11:21:57.008133+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T11:14:23.276935+00:00","external_market_id":"2646914","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.7625,"data_completeness":0.0799,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.75,"delta_7d":20.45,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":41.531,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4091,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":425,"signal_score":3.2045,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.558],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.5675],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00",0.6265],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.614],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.639],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.639],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.645],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.647],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7075],["2026-08-15T00:05:00+00:00",0.692],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.7035],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.7015],["2026-08-15T14:05:00+00:00",0.6785],["2026-08-15T18:05:00+00:00",0.679],["2026-08-15T21:05:00+00:00",0.6735],["2026-08-15T22:05:00+00:00",0.6735],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.6715],["2026-08-16T05:05:00+00:00",0.6695],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.6685],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.6675],["2026-08-16T18:05:00+00:00",0.6785],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.6905],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.682],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.686],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.6945],["2026-08-17T10:05:00+00:00",0.6945],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.6825],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.6895],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.693],["2026-08-18T00:05:00+00:00",0.6915],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.708],["2026-08-18T10:05:00+00:00",0.7065],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-18T14:05:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.732],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.7265],["2026-08-19T03:05:00+00:00",0.7505],["2026-08-19T05:05:00+00:00",0.7505],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.7405],["2026-08-19T12:05:00+00:00",0.745],["2026-08-19T18:05:00+00:00",0.7575],["2026-08-19T19:05:00+00:00",0.7575],["2026-08-19T22:05:00+00:00",0.753],["2026-08-20T03:05:00+00:00",0.7555],["2026-08-20T09:05:00+00:00",0.7575],["2026-08-20T11:05:00+00:00",0.7625]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T11:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":2.0,"observation_count":167,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":20.45,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":166.9},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","title":"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"e73307d93f9fd3f0fa32c18611f006663af4f2b0b6253779e8f78bdc7139f244","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T11:14:23.276935+00:00","source_markets":["046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}