{"bundle_id":"e60d7d1f-848a-453d-b882-3dca0e0fc818","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T22:15:43.643424+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"0592be64-1119-4f8a-b551-a2cba2b7dc9a","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0255,"data_completeness":0.0694,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.2,"delta_7d":-2.85,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":19.2391,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.6842,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":206,"signal_score":3.7921,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"8fc28ad7-c353-46ed-a4a0-6ac17242a023","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T22:18:46.942004+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T22:14:45.242336+00:00","external_market_id":"3002443","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0255,"data_completeness":0.0694,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.2,"delta_7d":-2.85,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":19.2391,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.6842,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":206,"signal_score":3.7921,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-04T23:00:00+00:00",0.054],["2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00",0.054],["2026-08-05T03:00:00+00:00",0.059],["2026-08-05T07:00:00+00:00",0.051],["2026-08-05T08:00:00+00:00",0.0575],["2026-08-05T12:00:00+00:00",0.054],["2026-08-05T17:00:00+00:00",0.047],["2026-08-05T18:00:00+00:00",0.047],["2026-08-05T21:00:00+00:00",0.044],["2026-08-06T01:00:00+00:00",0.0355],["2026-08-06T06:00:00+00:00",0.0255],["2026-08-06T07:00:00+00:00",0.028],["2026-08-06T08:00:00+00:00",0.023],["2026-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",0.0215],["2026-08-06T17:00:00+00:00",0.0175],["2026-08-06T19:00:00+00:00",0.0175],["2026-08-07T03:00:00+00:00",0.017],["2026-08-07T04:00:00+00:00",0.0225],["2026-08-07T07:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-07T14:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-07T20:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-08T02:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-08T15:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-09T15:05:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-10T11:05:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.052],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.0505],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.0465],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.041],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.0335],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.0255],["2026-08-11T22:05:00+00:00",0.0255]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T03:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-04T23:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T22:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":14.0,"observation_count":145,"points_returned":37,"probability_range_percentage_points":4.2,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"8fc28ad7-c353-46ed-a4a0-6ac17242a023","title":"Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"7d9015d5cfc1a499fcdc5ba680a3d91a10f6b17545e2632f07446a9b94e82d6e","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T22:14:45.242336+00:00","source_markets":["8fc28ad7-c353-46ed-a4a0-6ac17242a023"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}