{"bundle_id":"72127bc5-3531-4e2d-8ad0-37a3496a9e4d","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-14T09:20:57.288345+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"28dd153f-0048-420d-a4bd-d44464c63fc0","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0035,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.75,"delta_7d":-1.9,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":320.6135,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4167,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":171,"signal_score":3.2083,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"959bdad3-4ce0-4258-89a4-3bb36a945cd6","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-14T09:22:00.853462+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T09:15:31.757758+00:00","external_market_id":"2846101","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0035,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.75,"delta_7d":-1.9,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":320.6135,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.4167,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":171,"signal_score":3.2083,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-07T10:00:00+00:00",0.0225],["2026-08-07T11:00:00+00:00",0.022],["2026-08-07T13:00:00+00:00",0.0225],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.022],["2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00",0.023],["2026-08-08T01:00:00+00:00",0.022],["2026-08-08T02:00:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.0225],["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.0225],["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.0245],["2026-08-09T02:00:00+00:00",0.025],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.025],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.0245],["2026-08-09T13:00:00+00:00",0.0245],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.025],["2026-08-09T21:00:00+00:00",0.0245],["2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00",0.024],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-10T05:00:00+00:00",0.024],["2026-08-10T11:00:00+00:00",0.024],["2026-08-10T15:00:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-10T18:00:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-11T01:00:00+00:00",0.0245],["2026-08-11T02:00:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-11T08:00:00+00:00",0.0265],["2026-08-11T09:00:00+00:00",0.024],["2026-08-11T12:00:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00",0.024],["2026-08-11T19:00:00+00:00",0.022],["2026-08-11T23:00:00+00:00",0.0225],["2026-08-12T02:00:00+00:00",0.023],["2026-08-12T07:00:00+00:00",0.023],["2026-08-12T13:00:00+00:00",0.021],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.021],["2026-08-12T19:00:00+00:00",0.0195],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.021],["2026-08-12T23:00:00+00:00",0.0205],["2026-08-13T04:00:00+00:00",0.021],["2026-08-13T07:00:00+00:00",0.0215],["2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00",0.021],["2026-08-13T17:00:00+00:00",0.0035],["2026-08-13T20:00:00+00:00",0.0065],["2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00",0.0015],["2026-08-14T03:00:00+00:00",0.0005],["2026-08-14T07:00:00+00:00",0.002],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.0035]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-07T10:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.6,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"959bdad3-4ce0-4258-89a4-3bb36a945cd6","title":"Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"e3f19c122dd08d1e7007f4d5c8adb972d3dadbf49101c90cf50a43c47d0a153f","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T09:15:31.757758+00:00","source_markets":["959bdad3-4ce0-4258-89a4-3bb36a945cd6"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}