{"bundle_id":"8a2f176a-ca37-425d-915b-9ff246a65242","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T16:21:51.676299+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"85e4f3b6-85d9-471b-984c-11a4a2028295","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.555,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-3.0,"delta_7d":-10.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.3216,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":48,"signal_score":4.3587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"0e88705a-11a1-47db-84bb-5dd6620151b3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T16:22:21.100876+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T16:16:53.397320+00:00","external_market_id":"2510767","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.555,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-3.0,"delta_7d":-10.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.3216,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":48,"signal_score":4.3587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-17T20:05:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-17T21:05:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.63],["2026-08-18T00:05:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-18T04:05:00+00:00",0.735],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-18T07:05:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-18T08:05:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-18T09:05:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-18T10:05:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.545],["2026-08-18T12:05:00+00:00",0.55],["2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-18T14:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-18T16:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-18T17:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-18T20:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-18T21:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-18T23:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-19T00:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-19T01:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-19T03:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-19T04:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-19T05:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-19T06:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-19T08:05:00+00:00",0.58],["2026-08-19T09:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-19T10:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-19T11:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-19T12:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-19T13:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-19T14:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-19T15:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-19T16:05:00+00:00",0.555]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T16:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":48,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":19.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":47.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"0e88705a-11a1-47db-84bb-5dd6620151b3","title":"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"403e8769daa8db38f6595c9fa53cb59cecb5e756403a9ee6c85b19ffbb95cb0f","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T16:16:53.397320+00:00","source_markets":["0e88705a-11a1-47db-84bb-5dd6620151b3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}