{"bundle_id":"7f6c383e-5a87-403a-89d8-62e2f74e9f02","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T12:20:37.790759+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"f5149c24-6f29-4dd4-842a-a256cab0be9f","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.285,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-14.5,"delta_7d":-14.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":135.3222,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":286,"signal_score":15.9239,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"487fee35-c05d-4710-8136-23378551237f","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T12:21:45.370858+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T12:16:01.906153+00:00","external_market_id":"2747434","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.285,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-14.5,"delta_7d":-14.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":135.3222,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":286,"signal_score":15.9239,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-14T01:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-14T07:05:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-14T08:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T12:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-14T18:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-16T00:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-16T04:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-16T11:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-16T14:05:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-16T17:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-16T19:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-16T21:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-17T08:05:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-17T10:05:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-17T13:05:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-17T15:05:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-17T16:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-17T20:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-17T21:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-18T04:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-18T09:05:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-18T12:05:00+00:00",0.285]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T20:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T12:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":27.0,"observation_count":86,"points_returned":44,"probability_range_percentage_points":18.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":111.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"487fee35-c05d-4710-8136-23378551237f","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"2ada70bd19ca615daefff4f925a22c54b06b9a818270445c8c8d2e054b7898d4","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T12:16:01.906153+00:00","source_markets":["487fee35-c05d-4710-8136-23378551237f"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}