{"bundle_id":"a835f440-adff-4e90-945d-8d481ea9546d","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T21:18:44.838771+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"514ed153-afc2-4350-833f-fa3c7d6bb060","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0835,"data_completeness":0.0521,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.7,"delta_7d":-2.2,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":135.1151,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2857,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":185,"signal_score":1.8429,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"39808129-6cee-477b-9e8c-dd73304ce510","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T21:19:46.573252+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T21:14:18.356114+00:00","external_market_id":"665727","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0835,"data_completeness":0.0521,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.7,"delta_7d":-2.2,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":135.1151,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2857,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":185,"signal_score":1.8429,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T22:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-11T03:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-11T07:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-11T11:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-11T20:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-12T04:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-12T09:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-12T13:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-12T17:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-13T02:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-13T06:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-13T10:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-13T14:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-13T19:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-13T21:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-13T23:00:00+00:00",0.0995],["2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00",0.1005],["2026-08-14T03:00:00+00:00",0.0995],["2026-08-14T04:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-14T07:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.1005],["2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00",0.1005],["2026-08-17T11:10:00+00:00",0.0855],["2026-08-17T12:10:00+00:00",0.0855],["2026-08-17T16:10:00+00:00",0.0855],["2026-08-17T19:10:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T21:05:00+00:00",0.0835]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T22:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T21:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":69.9,"observation_count":100,"points_returned":31,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.2,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"39808129-6cee-477b-9e8c-dd73304ce510","title":"Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"9e330c94c79059bb830f8b2e438379872aa4fc79a749fe23ec0bbc8f3441b623","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T21:14:18.356114+00:00","source_markets":["39808129-6cee-477b-9e8c-dd73304ce510"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}