{"bundle_id":"01ccef69-a303-4eb3-adca-b6a4d98e7c73","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T08:17:55.452352+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"40bebe53-7f26-4e7d-8163-648691cdcfee","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.275,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-5.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.6557,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":376,"signal_score":2.0869,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"085c2979-250c-4d65-baaf-e0a2def256a5","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T08:23:32.061229+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T08:15:50.059421+00:00","external_market_id":"682705","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.275,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-5.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.6557,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":376,"signal_score":2.0869,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-11T10:10:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-11T17:10:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-11T19:10:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-12T00:10:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-12T14:10:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-12T15:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-12T21:10:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T04:10:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T11:10:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T19:10:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-13T20:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-14T02:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-14T04:10:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-14T10:10:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-14T15:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-14T16:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-14T19:10:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-14T23:10:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-15T06:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-15T14:10:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-15T15:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-15T22:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T01:10:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T13:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T19:10:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-16T20:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-17T10:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-17T12:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-17T19:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-18T00:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-18T08:10:00+00:00",0.275]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T08:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":3.0,"observation_count":166,"points_returned":40,"probability_range_percentage_points":6.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"085c2979-250c-4d65-baaf-e0a2def256a5","title":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"db8e123f7444be069e1c23e0d49e18150054ec2917d398ef4d15050c8aa7bd3d","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T08:15:50.059421+00:00","source_markets":["085c2979-250c-4d65-baaf-e0a2def256a5"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}